The Election & Your Money. No Dumb Questions Podcast with Connell McShane and Doug Flynn, CFP. Ep. 3

Connell and Doug discussed the potential impact of the upcoming election on the stock market and investment strategies, emphasizing the importance of taking a long-term view. They also touched on the historical accuracy of presidential campaign promises, the potential effects of Trump's proposed trade policies, and the impact of tax changes on small businesses and the stock market. Lastly, they addressed the anxiety surrounding the election, attributing it to the polarized nature of information sources and differing perspectives on the candidates.

Election Impact on Stock Market

Connell and Doug discussed the impact of the upcoming election on the stock market and investment strategies. Doug emphasized the importance of taking a long-term view and not making short-term decisions based on emotional responses to the election. He suggested that divided government tends to be more beneficial for the market, as it provides certainty and slows down policy changes. Connell agreed, noting that the market tends to go up regardless of who is in charge.

Presidential Promises and Trade Policies

Doug and Connell discussed the historical accuracy of presidential campaign promises and their likelihood of being implemented. Doug noted that, on average, only 5% of promises are fulfilled, with the highest success rate being around 8%. Connell agreed, adding that Trump's promises are particularly numerous and ambitious. They also discussed the potential impact of Trump's proposed trade policies, with Doug suggesting that there is room for negotiation to make deals more favorable for the US.

Tax Changes and Market Resilience

Doug discussed the impact of tax changes on small businesses and the stock market. He argued that raising taxes doesn't always lead to increased revenue, as businesses may adjust their operations or delay decisions due to higher tax rates. Doug also pointed out that the stock market is comprised of companies, which can adapt to changes. He suggested that the current administration's policies, including boosted oil production, have contributed to the market's resilience. 

Election Anxiety and Polarized Perspectives

Connell and Doug discussed the anxiety surrounding the upcoming election, attributing it to the polarized nature of information sources and the differing perspectives on the candidates. Connell noted that people are anxious due to the perceived high stakes of the election, and that this anxiety is different from previous elections. Doug agreed, highlighting the unique challenges posed by the current candidates and the differing rules they operate under. 

US Election Impact on Economy

Doug and Connell discussed the upcoming US election and its potential impact on the economy and business. Doug emphasized the importance of long-term investing, regardless of the election outcome, and suggested that the market would not be significantly affected. He also mentioned the possibility of a slight increase in long-term capital gains tax rates, which could affect business owners. Connell advised listeners to stay calm and focus on long-term strategies, suggesting that more specific discussions could be held after the election results. Both agreed that the US is a resilient country and that the economy would continue to grow despite changes in leadership.

Next Steps

More strategic long-term investment advice after the election results, considering who will control Congress and the presidency.
Potential impact of the candidates' policy proposals on the stock market and individual investments.
Insights on small business impact.

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